Tetlock emphasizes importance of this in his forecasting studies. And, well, everyone makes the point that this is how science progresses.
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Hard to weed out the bad ideas when they're not even wrong.
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@patrickc I predict your request will lead to 0% increase in time bounded concrete predictions over next 6 months vs last 6 monthsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@patrickc have u read superforecasting yet? it's worthwhileThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@patrickc Don't you think It changes with different economy and geographic region?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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