In discussing technological progress, Peter Thiel makes an interesting point based on Gott's delta t argument.pic.twitter.com/C3TecorMNu
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The paper is very much worth reading, as is Nick Bostrom's chapter on the argument in his Anthropic Bias book: http://www.anthropic-principle.com/?q=book/chapter_6 ….
@patrickc Wasn't sure you were a Nick Bostrom fan. I think he says very interesting things about technology.
@patrickc There are fundamental problems with Gott's analysis, some of which are nicely laid out here: http://arxiv.org/pdf/astro-ph/0001414.pdf …
@michael_nielsen Yeah; Bostrom also concludes that the argument is broken. I should probably have clarified though...
@patrickc Deutsch argues directly against this kind of reasoning in Beginning of Infinity. Look forward to epistemology chat soon! :)
@patrickc The punchline of that paper is to show that Gott's analysis requires a scale-free prior. That's one hell of an assumption!
@patrickc (With, I suppose, the obligatory disclaimer: the author is a friend, and was my PhD supervisor.)
@patrickc doesn't the black swan theory make such DA predictions useless as we have a very hard time predicting unforseen events
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