@pmarca It's certainly possible that there's some deep reason as to why it won't work. But 70 years of failure barely changes the prior.
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@pmarca As to why there's reason to believe in a jump, Turing himself addressed this:http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=CEMYUU_HFMAC&oi=fnd&pg=PA105&dq=Intelligent+Machinery,+A+Heretical+Theory*&ots=dOdgQS306D&sig=01NBeCMqGeQj9NTPRUX7DHmTT-Y#v=onepage&q=Intelligent%20Machinery%2C%20A%20Heretical%20Theory*&f=false …
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