"Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money." —@natfriedman
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Also to consider: Timescale, eg short-term pessimist, long-term optimist Related: pessimist about risks/dangers, optimist about our ability to overcome them with technology (this is how I think of Musk)
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Bezos also gave himself low odds of success (30%) and warned his friends and family of that when they invested in Amazon. I think you need a mix: you know the odds are bad, but you know you’ll work damned hard to put yourself on the fight side of them.https://books.google.com/books?id=EShp4X-WlmoC&pg=PT45&lpg=PT45&dq=jeff+bezos+amazon+likely+fail+friends+and+family&source=bl&ots=5i0honrx2d&sig=ACfU3U0rVI7KoHOysL6-rhl577-_z9a2vQ&hl=en&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjvjqjqjM3pAhVLCKwKHfWZAHIQ6AEwGHoECAMQAQ#v=onepage&q=jeff%20bezos%20amazon%20likely%20fail%20friends%20and%20family&f=false …
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Agree, but how does that distinguish "optimism" from "understands EV"? Both imply "create tech companies," whereas e.g. only the former might imply "create restaurants" or "try to become a Hollywood star."
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Or to put it another way: optimists about restaurants don't make money, but optimists about tech startups do. So maybe what matters isn't optimism, but being calibrated about which opportunities are actually high EV, because they've read stuff like this: http://blog.eladgil.com/2019/05/markets-are-10x-bigger-than-ever.html …
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