"Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money." —@natfriedman
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I do generally agree that being EV-biased is a significant part of the story but I also think that the probabilities may not actually be what they a priori seem (even to the individuals themselves).
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In tech I agree. Lots more smart people should switch to tech pronto. But I think that's an argument for "be calibrated about which opportunities are actually high EV" rather than "be optimistic." Most Hollywood waiters hoping for their big break need to become LESS optimistic.
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Corollary must be that "Realists make a lot of money" :-)
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As with many things, disposition probably best assessed in revealed rather than stated preference.
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He did not make a 10% statement about PayPal. I'd say there were a O(100) people who *subjectively* could not distinguish their chances from Musk's at the time he made those claims, so seems reasonable.
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He's not the only one trying to succeed like this.
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Well, successful projects tend to be more famous than failures, but 10% is a quite high success rate, actually!
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Maybe 10% success rates when viewed individually, but especially with Tesla and SpaceX being built simultaneously, there’s possibly correlation between one’s success and the likelihood of the other’s.
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How many other ventures did he have a similar relation to in their early days? I suspect we are much less likely to have heard of those (if they exist).
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Survivorship bias. There are many 1000s of entrepreneurs who aim as big as Elon, but we don't talk about or remember them because they didn't succeed.
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