1/ Some folks at Stripe built http://ModelingCovid.com . While no model is perfect, it does three things a bit differently: (1) goes to extensive lengths to fit a sensible parametric model to observed data (both medical and mobility);
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ehh...some serious problems. This is saying MA has a COVID-19 R0 of 4.93. Considering that the number of infected people isn't increasing by a factor of 5 every couple weeks, I'd say something's gone wrong.
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You’re confusing R0 with Rt. R0 is R without mitigation. Rt is “effective” R and is currently estimated to be 0.93 in MA.
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The projections with relaxed social distancing from May 10 to July 6 are a bit terrifying. 188,000 deaths in California.
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I wonder if those modelling could create r values per county? It would be interesting to see if Dublin for instance have a virus reproductive above 1 person.
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domain isn't setup to receive emails -- info@modelingcovid.com doesn't work. Would like to compare scenarios better than a dropdown toggle.
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@DavidQuimby, any hard thoughts?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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Cool stuff -- are you storing the historical modeled results somewhere so that they can be compared against the actual observed data as it comes out?
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