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patrickc's profile
Patrick Collison
Patrick Collison
Patrick Collison
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@patrickc

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Patrick CollisonVerified account

@patrickc

Fallibilist, optimist. Stripe CEO.

patrick@stripe.com
patrickcollison.com
Joined April 2007

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    1. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc May 7
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      1/ Some folks at Stripe built http://ModelingCovid.com . While no model is perfect, it does three things a bit differently: (1) goes to extensive lengths to fit a sensible parametric model to observed data (both medical and mobility);

      36 replies 395 retweets 1,479 likes
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    2. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc May 7
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      2/ (2) all the code is open-source, with transparent parameters and assumptions; and (3) there's a focus on visualizing and explaining the effects of different policy responses.

      3 replies 6 retweets 140 likes
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      Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc May 7
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      3/ This *isn’t* an official Stripe project -- all credit should go to the people behind it and to the academics who gave guidance and feedback. But we all hope that it’s useful to anyone trying to understand what might happen from here.

      12:24 PM - 7 May 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 135 Likes
      • Syed Kazim Rizvi Bahi Para Lech Rzedzicki Ben Smith Nikolai Ladefoged Meindert-Jan Kroese Raghav Agrawal 𝗦𝗜𝗠O𝗡 O'𝗥𝗘𝗚𝗔𝗡 🦊 Sam B
      7 replies 5 retweets 135 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Trevor Klee‏ @trevor_klee May 7
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          Replying to @patrickc

          ehh...some serious problems. This is saying MA has a COVID-19 R0 of 4.93. Considering that the number of infected people isn't increasing by a factor of 5 every couple weeks, I'd say something's gone wrong.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc May 7
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          Replying to @trevor_klee

          You’re confusing R0 with Rt. R0 is R without mitigation. Rt is “effective” R and is currently estimated to be 0.93 in MA.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        4. 2 more replies
        1. Deirdre Des Jardins‏ @flowinguphill May 7
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          Replying to @patrickc

          The projections with relaxed social distancing from May 10 to July 6 are a bit terrifying. 188,000 deaths in California.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        1. melissa ocallaghan‏ @melissaocallag1 May 7
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          Replying to @patrickc

          I wonder if those modelling could create r values per county? It would be interesting to see if Dublin for instance have a virus reproductive above 1 person.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Dan Moore‏ @toobulkeh May 7
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          Replying to @patrickc

          domain isn't setup to receive emails -- info@modelingcovid.com doesn't work. Would like to compare scenarios better than a dropdown toggle.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. casey allen‏ @casey__allen May 7
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          Replying to @patrickc

          @DavidQuimby, any hard thoughts?

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        1. Patrick Atwater‏ @patwater May 8
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          Replying to @patrickc

          Cool stuff -- are you storing the historical modeled results somewhere so that they can be compared against the actual observed data as it comes out?

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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