Here is the fit for the global case load.pic.twitter.com/xcDczRoe87
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The logistic model is a solution to a simple differential equation that assumes a population increases exponentially if unconstrained and stops growing in a symmetric way when constrained (due to running out of resources.) 1/n
AIDS is not highly contagious. It’s not a pandemic and it remains in circulation for decades because of that. I’d argue it’s not even an epidemic except in very few locations. The models for pandemics don’t work for venereal diseases.
This is more akin to technical analysis in stocks, and is not a compliment
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