I agree @serwer, viral rates drop with both temperature and humidity. And surprisingly, 90% of the population is north of the equator. https://www.quora.com/Why-do-90-of-the-population-live-north-of-the-equator …https://twitter.com/serwer/status/1232655939808960513 …
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That assumes China data is accurate
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If China data is “questionable” they are more likely understating (vs overstating). Singapore per capita rate equal to reported China rate means Singapore’s actual per capita rate must be lower, which can be attributed to temperature and humidity.
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High stakes poker, do you shut down your economy (which may, or may not, prevent an epidemic)? Gamble that you'll get lucky, and dodge a bullet either through warming temps or just plain luck? What are the true human costs of Wuhan-style lockdown? (and benefits)
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It seems SK running optimal strategy: saturation-testing to identify clusters quickly so you can lock down clusters without completely locking down economy. The cost of this targeted approach is testing (cheap, relatively) and seems a colossal failure that the USA not doing this
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I agree. This may end up being something the world has to live with, unless we get a vaccine
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And, more people go out in the summer spreading the virus. We don’t know yet how the virus will do in extreme hear yet, bur it’s doing fine in sunny weather in Italy, Singapore and Hong Kong.
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Recovered rate in Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Australia, Malaysia much higher than Korea/ China. Zero deaths. 16/16 recovered in Vietnam with much worse healthcare than Korea/Japan. Far from certain but warm weather is our best short term hope.
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Singapore is humid and moist throughout the year. It’s not warm as say Indian or Middle Eastern summers or the California sun for that matter.
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Let’s throw out the Chinese data because it doesn’t square with behavior. Quarantine 800m people and de-leverage the global supply chain over ~2000 flu deaths is an absurd overreaction. All indications from Singapore point to temperature having zero effect on transmissibility.
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his assumptions are wrong because he doesnt know the virus is a genetically modified lab made virus with gain-of-function properties
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