Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.

This is the legacy version of twitter.com. We will be shutting it down on June 1, 2020. Please switch to a supported browser, or disable the extension which masks your browser. You can see a list of supported browsers in our Help Center.

  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
patrickc's profile
Patrick Collison
Patrick Collison
Patrick Collison
Verified account
@patrickc

Tweets

Patrick CollisonVerified account

@patrickc

Fallibilist, optimist. Stripe CEO.

patrick@stripe.com
patrickcollison.com
Joined April 2007

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @danwwang

      A very senior US cancer funding official recently told me that his view is that we’ve made very little progress in treatment since 1971. (And, to your point, that most mortality curves are confounded by non-treatment factors.)

      6 replies 9 retweets 104 likes
    2. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @patrickc @danwwang

      I thought this was interesting since local incentives presumably push him to be *optimistic* about rate of progress.

      1 reply 0 retweets 12 likes
    3. Alexander Berger‏ @albrgr Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @patrickc @danwwang

      What about Gleevec et al? I'm sympathetic to the concerns over early diagnosis distorting the stats but there seem to have been some real innovations, moreso in cancer than other fields.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    4. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @albrgr @danwwang

      Yeah, he wasn’t denying that particular breakthroughs have happened. Just arguing that *overall* improvement (lifestyle- and detection-adjusted) has been slight.

      3 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
    5. José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente‏ @ArtirKel Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @patrickc @albrgr @danwwang

      José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente Retweeted Ashwin Varma

      I guess you have read SSC's take on this as linked herehttps://twitter.com/varma_ashwin97/status/1228778007558529025?s=19 …

      José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente added,

      Ashwin Varma @varma_ashwin97
      Replying to @danwwang @Noahpinion
      No. Go look at the progress in leukemia, HER-2+ breast cancer, and others. E.g. http://www.haematologica.org/content/101/6/657.figures-only … This article is just wrong on so many levels.
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Ashwin Varma‏ @varma_ashwin97 Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @ArtirKel @patrickc and

      Also, I will die on the hill that population statistics are a *bad* way to measure medical innovation. By population-level metrics, the only two useful medicinal approaches were vaccines and antibiotics. But I'll then ask you to very kindly experience cardiac surgery in 1945.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    7. José Luis Ricón Fernández de la Puente‏ @ArtirKel Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @varma_ashwin97 @patrickc and

      Because most people are healthy and treatments mean little for most of the pop? (Also you could make the argument with CAR-T or any new fancy anticancer innovations)

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Ashwin Varma‏ @varma_ashwin97 Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @ArtirKel @patrickc and

      Pretty much yeah. It also takes a decade for the impact of new treatments to show up in the statistics. So advanced in melanoma and lung cancer due to I/O probably won't show up yet.

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. Ashwin Varma‏ @varma_ashwin97 Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @varma_ashwin97 @ArtirKel and

      Also I don't think you can easily separate the attributions of "early diagnosis" and "treatment". Yes, it's easier to treat cancer early. But better treatments have made it such that our early treatments are better than they were, and the risk of recurrences is less.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Ashwin Varma‏ @varma_ashwin97 Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @varma_ashwin97 @ArtirKel and

      One great example is Herceptin. Initially, it was used to treat patients with metastatic patients. But it's real impact has been as a neoadjuvant therapy along with surgery for *early* treatment. The result? We're looking at a future where mortality from HER2+ breast cancer is 0

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc Feb 15
      • Report Tweet
      • Report NetzDG Violation
      Replying to @varma_ashwin97 @ArtirKel and

      I think these are all good points. I don't personally have a strong view on the question. Does seem surprising to me that this analysis isn't pursued more actively by e.g. NCI -- it should be easy to find a definitive analysis. (And Scott shouldn't have had to write his post…)

      12:54 PM - 15 Feb 2020
      • 2 Likes
      • Dan Wang Alexander Berger
      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. Ashwin Varma‏ @varma_ashwin97 Feb 15
          • Report Tweet
          • Report NetzDG Violation
          Replying to @patrickc @ArtirKel and

          I would agree with this. Noting that this analysis isn't done (or if it is, it isn't publicized well) is in keeping with the fact that the biopharma industry writ large is very bad at PR. Something that @PeterKolchinsky and his group at RA are slowly trying to fix.

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
          Undo

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2020 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info