You're the only founder-CEO I know who respects studies like this. Most seem to prefer anecdotes from friends/colleagues, books by practitioners, and their own experience. Not sure what to make of this, assuming I'm right.
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All of those are very useful sources of knowledge and all have their own kinds of bias. For example, nearly every CEO will tell you that markets focus excessively on short-term results… but the data doesn't obviously support this: https://www.nber.org/papers/w23464.pdf ….
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Curious: how do you decide what research papers to read? do you follow certain professors or publications?
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SubReddits and http://libgen.io combination works out.
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Things are never as good, or as bad, as your untrained instinct leads you to think.
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Everybody is! Overconfidence among 1154 behavioural science nerds https://www.bi.team/blogs/are-you-well-calibrated-results-from-a-survey-of-1154-bit-readers/ …pic.twitter.com/sAodIi80XA
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Doctors too (graph on the left, unlike the weather forecasters on the right they don't work in an environment with the kind of very quick feedback loops that facilitate calibrated judgement)pic.twitter.com/ilI6wxt1Qe
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The economic myth of the “rational man” being recycled to rational manager
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Thanks for sharing but leadership confidence may also *improve* sales results right? If that’s correct (don’t have an article reference top of mind) then one might argue that some firms would’ve performed worse with less confident management, independent of prognosis volatility?
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