I wonder does that statement map across asset classes. EG, "thanks to <gold, the kinds of people who like gold> are going to be allocating a lot of capital in the coming decades". That's probably true, too-could it not just be an artifact of monetary policy, and so just a bubble?
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Well, I think it requires an explosion of value and large absolute size in the asset class. Crypto currently has both of those characteristics. So did/do tech equities, of course, and second-order effects of that wealth creation have indeed been quite significant, I think.
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Consider a 'Volcker'-type scenario where monetary policy goes from super-accommodating/near zero to (say) 15%. Assets like crypto would just get wiped out, would they not? Bonds/Tech equities would cope, but only by changing strategies dramatically.
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I’ve no idea what will happen to crypto prices as a general matter... in this scenario, perhaps such an extreme hike would be taken to indicate a return to a more 70s-like regime, and back then interest rates and gold prices comoved!
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Also not just thinking about gold but the wider (now utterly massive, in future even larger) universe of potential financial assets you could hold in say 2029
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Yep. Although even setting those future issues aside, I presume(?) some holders have already exchanged their large crypto holdings—or some significant chunk thereof—for USD. And so I suspect asset class already large enough to trigger the effect.
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The effect being people take capital gains from crypto, pay taxes on that, then use that to stake Son of Stripe, etc., then Grandson of Stripe if 1st round successful?
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Agree. I like macro waves that cause very different types of people to have lots of capital early. Because it's good test for how inefficient our status quo is a capital allocation.
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And increasingly wonder if the rich/unconstrained today are as a whole not ambitious enough in scope.
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I’m quite certain this is true.
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Ooh interesting that you strongly agree. What do you think is cause? And what do you think could help inflect it?
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Good question... as with most structural failures in life, some combination of herd effects, risk aversion, availability bias, and principal/agent problems :-).
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haha, structuralism--the best answer for everything, but the hardest to solve
I wonder if most unconstrained would agree this is true. Ah so many experiments that'd be fun to see haha.
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I worry about the intersection of this and Citizens United.
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Available evidence suggests that you shouldn’t be too concerned... https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3042867 …
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Like real estate in SF
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