Is that saying that on 4th and 1 on your own 10 you should go for it?
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Yes, (although all 4th&1 not created equal) but the conversion rates on QB sneaks are extraordinarily high.
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Also principal + agent problems here. When you do the unorthodox thing, you risk looking dumb. No one ever got fired for buying IBM
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Until everyone got fired
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ooo ooo, time for one of my favorite papers https://www.nber.org/papers/w11270.pdf …
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Brad, Massey has been talking about this (and others) paper on
@WMoneyball podcast. He's softened on QB selection. Otherwise, great paper and great to see it followed (or not) in league. - Još 2 druga odgovora
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/1 These seem to express narrow probabilities of successful outcomes instead of incorporating broader considerations, like expected point values...https://twitter.com/patrick_oshag/status/1219690781872730112?s=19 …
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/2 e.g. Getting stuffed on 4th & 1 from inside your own 10 yard line is probably something like a -5.5 point consequence -- disregarding the opportunity cost forgone from not strategically punting for field position...
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I’m guessing those models don’t take into account second order effects like team morale and momentum, time on field for offense and defense, etc.
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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OK, planning on doing a simulation to see what works.pic.twitter.com/HMOptzX31l
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The goalposts are in the right spot! Must be an old model
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