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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 24 May 2018
      • Report Tweet
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      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Will Cole

      Maybe it’s just the cold meds talking but I’m having difficulty understanding if this is, in fact, the Monty Hall problem. We know Monty can and will always divulge a wrong door. We do not know that experiment co-participant couldn’t have picked the steak.https://twitter.com/willcole/status/999276319061041153 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Will Cole @willcole
      Real life Monty Hall problem. One of these breakfast tacos has steak. I want that one. I pick the far left. Wife tells me far right taco is black bean. I switch to the middle taco. I win steak. pic.twitter.com/LgUSwFdl3c
      7 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 24 May 2018
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      So let’s see if I can reason through this: A is steak, B and C are not. We pick A, wife picks B, we switch: lose if switch. A, C: lose if switch. B, A: wife informs us of steak, we find steak. B, C: win if switch. C,A: excluded. C, B: win if switch.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 24 May 2018
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      So if we exclude the world states in which this tweet doesn’t happen because your co-experimenter just hands you the steak, “stay” and “switch” are both right 50% of time. *Not* the Monty Hall problem.

      8:05 PM - 24 May 2018
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      • mocktopus Maddie Chris Peterson luke MD ⭐ Daniel Lucraft Ed Umansky Brian 🇲🇽🇮🇱
      6 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
        1. kevin lochner‏ @klochner 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          You can’t exclude states ex-post and assign equal probabilities to initial states ex-ante. It’s Monty Hall.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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        2. Josh Jordan‏ @jordancurve 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          In Monty Hall, the host never reveals the prize. E.g., if you pick B, wife can only respond w/ C. Suppose you always switch. If you pick A, you lose. If you pick B or C, you win. You pick each with probability 1/3. Your prob. of winning is therefore (1/3)(0) + 1/3 + 1/3 = 2/3.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Josh Jordan‏ @jordancurve 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @jordancurve @patio11

          Josh Jordan Retweeted Will Cole

          @willcole's follow-up tweet indicates that this was not, in fact, a Monty Hall problem. @patio11 correctly interpreted what was going on.https://twitter.com/willcole/status/999306476576526336 …

          Josh Jordan added,

          Will Cole @willcole
          Replying to @mflaxman
          Yes, but would this scenario disqualify the advantage? The conditions seem (accidentally) similar. I grab one, I am exposed to another option which is certainly not the correct choice, and am left with the option of sticking with my original pick or changing.
          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Mark Noonan‏ @marktnoonan 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          If you pick first, then wife reveals a non-steak burrito, *at that moment* it transposes to the Monty Hall problem. I think your two scenarios where we pick "A" double count that choice. So it should be 33-66 not 50-50.

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        1. Travis Erdman‏ @TravisErdman 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          I assumed wife knew state of all tacos, where it is MH. Patrick assumes wife did not know state of tacos until opening hers.

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        2. Dan Fabulich‏ @dfabu 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          You've hit upon a critical ambiguity in the way many people explain Monty Hall. The problem depends crucially on whether Monty knows the right answer. Otherwise it's a "Monty Fall" or "Ignorant Monty" case, a 50/50 chance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Variants …

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Dan Fabulich‏ @dfabu 24 May 2018
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          Replying to @dfabu @patio11

          If we assume that the wife didn't know which taco had steak, but just randomly picked a taco after Will Cole did, then Will had a 50/50 chance of picking steak. See also "Monty from Hell" where switching never wins; "Angelic Monty" where switching wins 100%.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. arohner‏ @arohner 25 May 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          It is the monty hall problem, as long as the wife is correct.

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