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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 24 May 2018
    • Report Tweet
    • Report NetzDG Violation

    Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Will Cole

    Maybe it’s just the cold meds talking but I’m having difficulty understanding if this is, in fact, the Monty Hall problem. We know Monty can and will always divulge a wrong door. We do not know that experiment co-participant couldn’t have picked the steak.https://twitter.com/willcole/status/999276319061041153 …

    Patrick McKenzie added,

    Will Cole @willcole
    Real life Monty Hall problem. One of these breakfast tacos has steak. I want that one. I pick the far left. Wife tells me far right taco is black bean. I switch to the middle taco. I win steak. pic.twitter.com/LgUSwFdl3c
    7:59 PM - 24 May 2018
    • 2 Retweets
    • 17 Likes
    • global juche by 2025 Matt Secoske Nick Abouzeid Ilya Abyzov Barnaby Its burn down Daniel Klein James Fuller
    7 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 24 May 2018
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        So let’s see if I can reason through this: A is steak, B and C are not. We pick A, wife picks B, we switch: lose if switch. A, C: lose if switch. B, A: wife informs us of steak, we find steak. B, C: win if switch. C,A: excluded. C, B: win if switch.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 24 May 2018
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        So if we exclude the world states in which this tweet doesn’t happen because your co-experimenter just hands you the steak, “stay” and “switch” are both right 50% of time. *Not* the Monty Hall problem.

        6 replies 0 retweets 18 likes
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      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Florian‏ @frivoal 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        What they could have done doesn't matter? Initially, 1 in 3 chance of getting steak. After the bean reveal, 1 in 2. Isn't that enough to justify switching as a good strategy?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Barnaby‏ @B_Barbarian 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @frivoal @patio11

        No, each of his possible picks if 50% possible. In original, switching is win 2/3, vs staying is 1/3. So, in this case, same advantage not checking.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. HS‏ @statictype 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        There’s no co participant here? Seems like exactly the Monty Hall problem

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Edna Krabappel‏ @Krabappel_Edna 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        I think it is after she tells him.... His odds go from 1/3 to 2/3

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Edna Krabappel‏ @Krabappel_Edna 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @Krabappel_Edna @patio11

        But obviously if she had picked steak it wouldn’t be.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Barnaby‏ @B_Barbarian 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        The way to think of the Monty Hall problem is the fist pick is not of “C” but of “A or B”, knowing that the host will eliminate one of the two for you. I think this only works when the elimination is based on knowledge.

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      1. Sebastian Bensusan‏ @sebasbensu 24 May 2018
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        Replying to @patio11

        If Monty doesn't know which door is the car, it is not the Monty Hall problem. If beans are correlated with not-steak then it is an even more Bayesian version of it.

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