The super-rich people in the news tend to be tech founders and celebrities - people who you can plausibly argue earned their fortunes. Meanwhile, tons of super-rich guys who got lucky picking stocks or timing the markets fly under the radar.
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Almost all the fortunes made in capital allocation are neither a result of market-beating skill in picking nor in luck; they’re a result of charging a percentage of assets under management and managing a lot of money, which is weakly correlated with the first two.
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(This has policy implications. You could tax luck directly, if you wanted to; that would be a very ineffective policy relative to taxing carried interest as ordinary income as opposed to capital gains.)
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Weak form EMH says some people get lucky
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As do the other EMH varieties, of course.
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Resource allocation is one of the oldest jobs there is. Life has been doing it since life was life.
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Well, for what it’s worth I genuinely believe the efficient market theory is total bs. It’s a dogma and not a scientifically falsifiable hypothese. (You would also have to define which version of the efficient market hypothesis you follow, as there are several)
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