Consumption of alcohol, emotional disturbances, and lack of sleep are all not conducive to repeatedly making correct decisions. One important genre of correct decision they inhibit is "How impaired am I by this circumstance? Am I too impaired to e.g. play poker?"
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(Oh I've got *so* many thoughts on how the tech industry would probably interview for poker playing skill... let's say that the *savviest companies* would land on "Play one hand of poker on a whiteboard with me.")
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(If you come for the software and stay for the poker, and not the other way around, the implication is that the variance of a single hand of poker swamps most of the variance in the candidate pool, assuming you've FizzBuzz filtered first.)
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FizzBuzz: No lie, if you were to ask "Before I let you go to that table, first: tell me any five cards which would form a flush" that would prevent at least some people from sitting down at the 1/2 tables. Sometimes they win a hand. Sometimes they even end positive on a session.
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Continuing the analogy: there are many more people that can talk at substantial length about strategy, sometimes at substantial levels of theoretical sophistication, than are capable of executing that strategy, or a markedly less sophisticated strategy, at a given bar.
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Is there any domain where non-experts can distinguish between good and great?
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Yes, many of them; generally depends on legibility of the output rather than difficulty of producing it. (Runners are very easy to evaluate. Cooks are surprisingly easy to evaluate, particularly if you can watch them work, at sufficiently coarse gradations of skill.)
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That’s the “beauty” of variance. To some extent it’s true in business too.
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