“Why is Amazon trying to sell me an X? I just bought an X. Idiots!” People who are compensated strictly based on their ability to predict the future, like poker players and marketers at e-commerce shops, tend to be much better at high school math than Twitter users.
I'd take the other side of this bet. Amazon does the same thing and doesn't need a pixel to render to look in their own database and say "Hah you bought a refrigerator already; guess I'll suppress those results now."
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I'd love to actually execute this bet, but can't quite figure out how to state and then measure it ;)
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Set of new accounts view the same set of products. Some fraction makes a purchase. Compare # of targeted ads received for the accounts that did vs. did not make a purchase. The same could be performed across categories where repeat purchases within category should be more likely.
End of conversation
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