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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Apr 2018
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      “Why is Amazon trying to sell me an X? I just bought an X. Idiots!” People who are compensated strictly based on their ability to predict the future, like poker players and marketers at e-commerce shops, tend to be much better at high school math than Twitter users.

      11 replies 37 retweets 133 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Apr 2018
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      You need two insights here: 1) Conditional probability is a mathematical technology that does exist. 2) Buying X is not entirely random across the population. The ways X is not random vary based on the good. Consider refrigerators.

      2 replies 3 retweets 19 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Apr 2018
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      You probably buy one every ten years. If I don't know where you are in your refrigerator cycle, my prior estimate should be 2.7e-4 probability of you buying it tomorrow. Suppose I know you bought yesterday. In my life on earth, I have realized that buyer's remorse is a thing.

      3 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Apr 2018
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      What's a SWAG for how often a purchase immediately goes wrong? Not right color? Fridge DOA? Shoot I mismeasured my kitchen? Wife just hates it? Call that 2%. If I fix it within a week, then 2% / 7 = 2.9e-3 probability of purchasing a new fridge. That's a 10X relative risk.

      7 replies 2 retweets 32 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Apr 2018
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      Here's a true statement: People who will in 2018 give birth to a child named Abigail are at least 5X more likely to give birth to a child in 2019 than people chosen at random. "Naming your child Abigail can't make you more likely to get pregnant." Again, failure to do the math.

      4:00 AM - 6 Apr 2018
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      • sahara Natalie Kyouu 🍋 spytheman unfortuNate (dad)jokes 🧙‍♂️ John Lee simple complex Lie algebra Iñigo 🇪🇸🇪🇺🌍 Florian Grosberg
      2 replies 8 retweets 40 likes
        1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 6 Apr 2018
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          (You get a 2X there, for free, from the observation "If you had a child named Abigail this year you are biologically capable of having children; this is not true of no less than half of humanity. Now apply same insight to childbearing age and you're already at 5X+.)

          3 replies 2 retweets 28 likes
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        1. tommy boy‏ @tomkarlo 6 Apr 2018
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          Replying to @patio11

          Amazon's logic is that you're also more likely to name that second child Abigail, which is what gets annoying.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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