“Why is Amazon trying to sell me an X? I just bought an X. Idiots!” People who are compensated strictly based on their ability to predict the future, like poker players and marketers at e-commerce shops, tend to be much better at high school math than Twitter users.
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You probably buy one every ten years. If I don't know where you are in your refrigerator cycle, my prior estimate should be 2.7e-4 probability of you buying it tomorrow. Suppose I know you bought yesterday. In my life on earth, I have realized that buyer's remorse is a thing.
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What's a SWAG for how often a purchase immediately goes wrong? Not right color? Fridge DOA? Shoot I mismeasured my kitchen? Wife just hates it? Call that 2%. If I fix it within a week, then 2% / 7 = 2.9e-3 probability of purchasing a new fridge. That's a 10X relative risk.
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Here's a true statement: People who will in 2018 give birth to a child named Abigail are at least 5X more likely to give birth to a child in 2019 than people chosen at random. "Naming your child Abigail can't make you more likely to get pregnant." Again, failure to do the math.
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(You get a 2X there, for free, from the observation "If you had a child named Abigail this year you are biologically capable of having children; this is not true of no less than half of humanity. Now apply same insight to childbearing age and you're already at 5X+.)
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End of conversation
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Enough with the coffins.
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but when retailers start pushing for repeated business on one-time purchases like drills or toilet seats, you wonder if they need to tweak the algorithm
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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