Two things that can both be true: 1. The world is getting better, by most metrics of human well-being 2. The risk of a major catastrophe is going up over time Yet I often see ppl try to dismiss 2 by saying "The doomsayers are wrong, things are getting better, [argument for 1]"
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Shouldn't we avoid generalizing from reduced cost spread of e.g. war, naturally-occurring plagues wrt overall risk of catastrophe, for the same reasons that future humans with good climate change solutions shouldn't look to climate change when there's a death ray pointed at them?
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