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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      Matt Levine on academic research into insider trading correctly observes that published papers always seem to conclude insider trading happens before X, for any X. https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-15/when-everything-is-too-safe-add-risk … A tantalizing possibility: insider trading happens before accidental p-hacking.

      1 reply 4 retweets 45 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      Starfighter’s last level asked players to identify an inside trader on a fictitious stock exchange driven by a world simulation. We simulated insider trading by giving the insider oracular knowledge of future events in the simulation relevant to their stock.

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      And I knew, by construction, that there was one and only one insider per simulation, because I put him there. Do you know how many people tried to convince me they found all seven?

      1 reply 2 retweets 19 likes
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      As long as I’m on the topic let me spill the beans of how our simulation worked, because it’s the coolest thing I ever built. I wanted stocks to trade in a way that “felt real” so I started with historical reality.

      1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      Every time a player played a level they’d be matched up with one year of history from 2000 to 2015 with one S&P 500 stock. I did a random walk based on that year, to prevent anyone from figuring out that this was happening.

      2 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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    6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      This basically created a surprisingly lifelike companies; they’d show business cycles, sometimes blow up ($BAC in 2008 was a great time to play through), sometimes have a flat year, etc.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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      The random walk’s results were the true, oracular, platonic idealized Fair Market Value for the company. For each trader in the simulation, we gave them a distorted view on their *perception* of that value.

      8:05 AM - 15 Feb 2018
      • 4 Likes
      • paul shinn Matt "summoning arachnogods" Olson Diego Henrique #ohyeah #learn #infosec #comedic #investing #cyber
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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          Trivial example: for a buy-and-hold bot, we’d let them estimate FMV by rolling randomly between N% of the true FMV, for some N configurable to demonstrate skill. When they saw the market diverge from their estimate, they’d put in buy orders.

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        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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          A very simple ecology of very simulated bots was sufficient to keep up the charade of an actively, lively, not-terribly-disordered market... at least until acted upon by the player, at which point things could go off the rails in delightfully silly ways.

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        4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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          The insider was trivial to program given that the computer knew the true FMV for the entire simulated year in advance: he’s a value investor who buys when the stock is undervalued and sells when he has locked in a profit... buuuuuut he *literally* knows the future FMV, exactly.

          1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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          Interestingly I think we might be the only game which actually had a legit order book*, possibly ever. Most games just simulate the closing price, sometimes the bid/ask price, but it was important for our pedagogic purposes that there be an actual book. * aside from crypto ;)

          2 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
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        6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 15 Feb 2018
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          You can’t show some of the real challenges of trading without there being an actual order book. For example: slippage. Putting in a sufficiently large order moves the market against you. You can’t teach people about that if you give them any quantity at “the price.”

          2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        7. End of conversation

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