NYT reports 3 legit experts estimate risk of war with North Korea at 25-40%. If one believes this, puts on Seoul REITs are deeply mispriced.
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This will likely turn out to be another data point for “Smart people can still be innumerate and connect 40% to ‘gut says possible’”
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The NYT reports this as “The public and markets don’t understand the danger we’re in.” Nope; people good at math will continue mathing.
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Counterparty risk tho. Even if you win that bet you'd never be able to collect.
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A war could do a lot of damage to SK without wiping out US/EU-based counterparties.
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