I don't think many people appreciate that this happened (similar at Facebook, too) and forms an important part of career calculus. https://twitter.com/hunterwalk/status/858371899738304512 …
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Replying to @patio11
Many engineers think "Options are a lottery ticket" and I think I agree at e.g. a seed round but Google in 2004 was materially derisked.
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Replying to @patio11
I also don't think founders are entirely cognizant of what this does if you're bidding against a company with a credible shot at Google-dom.
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Replying to @patio11
This seems like a shift from your previous advocacy of EMH, no? Why does the private market not revalue "credible Google-dom" sufficiently?
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Replying to @_akavi @ArjunKavi
I don't see them as in contradiction but difficult to explain in tweets; weak form EMH isn't "all assets are priced correctly"
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Replying to @patio11 @ArjunKavi
it is closer to "it is a Hard Problem to profitably exploit asset mispricing in a repeatable fashion." (Feels true in careers.)
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Replying to @patio11
Are founders bidding against employees *belief* of finding google-dom, or employee's actionable ability to choose google-dom?
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Ultimately the first, I suppose, since this is a sales exercise, but there really are N plausible companies for next Google.
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