The BBC reports that Wright is indeed Satoshi. http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-36168863 … Well that puts me from 10% chance to 40% chance on it.
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So essentially my gap between 40% and 95% is entirely "Not 100% trust in BBC's technical experts to have done some tricky work correctly."
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Short version if you're not following along: if they actually saw the evidence they think they saw, virtually dispositive he is involved.
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