People who have a narrative conception of numbers are common, do not believe themselves ill, and drive engineers absolutely batshit insane.
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The overwhelming majority of people, if you can torture them enough to get them to say 40% probability, simply mean "I'm leaning against it"
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Jim
@grayj_ accurately points out that engineers often have a narrative conception of numbers, which is absolutely true. - 2 more replies
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@patio11 Fun part is you can totally bullshit your statistical priors +/- not being totally incorrect, and still get valid useful math.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@patio11 clearly, knowing this distinction is +EV -
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