A salesman who says "I have an 80% chance of closing a deal" probably does not mean, if 5 deals are in pipeline, expected value is 4 deals.
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Some engineers, statisticians, and poker players are capable of saying "40% probability" and having that mean something which can math.
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@patio11 I think you'd enjoy@superforecaster -
@john_henry@superforecaster I think I am literally the only one of the five McKenzie siblings who does not play that game. - 3 more replies
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@patio11 Also most engineers. Including when they think they're not doing it & are obviously immune because magic engineering rationalism.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@bogglesnatch@patio11@florianlaws Spolsky on MC estimation (aka Evidence Based Scheduling) http://www.joelonsoftware.com/items/2007/10/26.html … -
@glowingfreezer@bogglesnatch@patio11 Yeah, that was what I was thinking about. Know anyone who tried it?
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@patio11 come attend a San Francisco housing-related community meeting sometime. It’s off the charts in that regard.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@bogglesnatch@patio11 I read about some trying Monte Carlo simulation based on measured effort of a sample of previously estimated projectsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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