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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. #TestAndTrace Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 19
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      #TestAndTrace Smith  🐇 Retweeted Megan McArdle

      I think this seems broadly correct. By the mid-2010s the internet was basically built out. V.C. doesn't have enough $ to fund huge capital-intensive things, so it funded either A.I./ML stuff, or gig-economy, disrupt-the-physical-world sort of stuff.https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1262782944260825089 …

      #TestAndTrace Smith  🐇 added,

      Megan McArdleVerified account @asymmetricinfo
      One way to describe the past decade is to say that venture capitalists ran out of viable software services with global economies of scale, and instead of acknowledging the boom was over, they just applied the old investment model to physical services that don't scale the same way https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/1262781861505511426 …
      Show this thread
      19 replies 20 retweets 148 likes
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    2. #TestAndTrace Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 19
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      @roybahat @jamescham @garrytan @kimmaicutler VC friends, what do y'all think?

      10 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
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    3. Garry Tan‏Verified account @garrytan May 19
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      Replying to @Noahpinion @roybahat and

      Software is still there growing at a crazy clip. Have you ever heard of @patio11's law?https://secondbreakfast.co/patio11-s-law 

      3 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
    4. #TestAndTrace Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 19
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      Replying to @garrytan @roybahat and

      By repeated application of this law, we can believe that the software economy is of arbitrary size

      3 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 May 19
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      Replying to @Noahpinion @garrytan and

      I non-ironically believe that.

      3:30 PM - 19 May 2020
      • 9 Likes
      • Edouard Harris Will Schreiber James Cham ✍🏻 🧑🏻‍💻☕️ James Tinged Words Kyle Russell Garry Tan #TestAndTrace Smith 🐇 Battery Respecter™
      4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
        1. #TestAndTrace Smith  🐇‏Verified account @Noahpinion May 19
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          Replying to @patio11 @garrytan and

          It's big as the swing of Tiger Woods

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 May 19
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          Replying to @patio11 @Noahpinion and

          (Assuming you mean "over time"; obviously there's some bounded amount of activity currently but the total addressable market for software at time goes to infinity is effectively one of those pesky mathematical varieties of infinite which is a bigger infinite than most.)

          1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        3. Hadar Dor‏ @haddartha May 19
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          Replying to @patio11 @Noahpinion and

          But how many $10M ARR startups (per the examples in the law) have growth potential warranting VC backing? The long tail may expand for a while, but I think point still stands that the big swings are scarcer and more capital-intensive

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. Roy Bahat .‾ ‾‏Verified account @roybahat May 19
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          Replying to @patio11 @Noahpinion and

          I think for sure it's true that there are markets where the capital ticket to enter is bigger than current VC can comfortably fund. You see some experienced founders going after that -- usually it's the second-time winner who can raise enough to, e.g., build Ye Olde Rockets.

          0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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        1. James Cham  ✍🏻‏ @jamescham May 19
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          Replying to @patio11 @Noahpinion and

          Me too!

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