I think this seems broadly correct. By the mid-2010s the internet was basically built out. V.C. doesn't have enough $ to fund huge capital-intensive things, so it funded either A.I./ML stuff, or gig-economy, disrupt-the-physical-world sort of stuff.https://twitter.com/asymmetricinfo/status/1262782944260825089 …
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It's big as the swing of Tiger Woods
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(Assuming you mean "over time"; obviously there's some bounded amount of activity currently but the total addressable market for software at time goes to infinity is effectively one of those pesky mathematical varieties of infinite which is a bigger infinite than most.)
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But how many $10M ARR startups (per the examples in the law) have growth potential warranting VC backing? The long tail may expand for a while, but I think point still stands that the big swings are scarcer and more capital-intensive
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I think for sure it's true that there are markets where the capital ticket to enter is bigger than current VC can comfortably fund. You see some experienced founders going after that -- usually it's the second-time winner who can raise enough to, e.g., build Ye Olde Rockets.
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Me too!
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