This is a very counterintuitive way of looking at the world. Speaking generally rather than specifically: one generally wants a budget for fraud (or similar negative things) and to spend that budget prudently, not drive to zero. Socially non-desirable to say in as many words.https://twitter.com/ByrneHobart/status/1260264924967768064 …
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Also true for bluffing in poker, if you don’t get caught sometimes, you aren’t bluffing enough!
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Poker as a lens for life/business/etc and for sharpening ability to think through this sort of tradeoffs is one reason I keep paying tuition to independent consultants twice or so annually ;)
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corollary: "You are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept." --Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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If you're a competitive runner and you win all your races, that means either you're the best in the world (unlikely), or that you're not running against people who might be better than you, and not pushing to do your best.
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I agree on a practical level that if your win rate is too high then that likely is a sign that you are choosing your battles too conservatively. However that is different from the question of: given that you made the choice to go into battle, do you then try to win every time?
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When lenders send loan applicants down the fraud path (~3x worse experience), you can easily cause 75% to ghost, despite many good applicants. In a prior life, we saw a clear inverse correlation between that number and number of issued fraud loans. Zero fraud is bad.
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This is a better example than the one I use. If you never miss a flight, your spending too much time waiting at the airport.
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ROC curves for everything ...
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If everything seems under control, you're just not going fast enough. —Mario Andretti
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