Bloomberg: “No excess mortality in Tokyo” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/tokyo-mortality-tally-shows-no-surge-in-deaths-during-pandemic …pic.twitter.com/HMvX3YOQsH
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Do you think the current numbers showing a sharp decline in covid cases are real?
I believe we’ve had a substantial decline in the rate of transmission due to substantially modified behavior. As to whether I “believe the numbers” or not: I believe the explanations from epidemiologists that accurately measuring the extent of the epidemic is not a design goal.
I’m curious to read more of your thoughts on this
I was asked that question on twitter a month ago--the error bars on these things are wide, and so while excess mortality is a useful indicator, it's just a start.
I would ask, as you have "What's normal", but also "what is normal variation across a [10] year time period". Are we at 1-sigma, 2-sigma or more across the country? How about a todofuken basis? Pneumonia basis? Others? My anecdata shows minimal crits in JP and few cases. YMMV
Seems like all the influenza patients who should have died in February chose to wait until March to die. Hint hint. 57 COVID deaths March 31 in all Japan, officially.
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