It’s looking likely the national state of emergency gets extended, possibly for months depending on the degree of attainment on reducing human-to-human contact.https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20200429/amp/k10012410881000.html?__twitter_impression=true …
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The target reduction is 80% less contact from normal, and the messaged expectation has been that would lead to an 80% reduction in rate of growth within 15 days. 65% would imply 2+ months. We do not appear to have achieved those numbers consistently yet, though some cities close
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