Someone: Infection counts are down! Whee! Me (quietly): I think I am still way under my evidentiary threshold to conclude that is true.
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In Nashville, the data shows a tick down of infection %'s on Mondays and a spike on Tuesdays. Hypothesis is continued testing, but lower processing on Sundays.
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I would add that infection schedule also ties to the calendar-note how three day weekend a month ago correlates with a blow out in cases.
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In the UK fewer people die at the weekends (according to the stats*). * Clearly data collection and reporting is less reliable.
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I was wondering your thoughts on the following: if we have a fixed testing capacity ( [X] per day ) would an overwhelming infection rate look like a linear increase in time. Trying to understand infection dynamics in South Africa
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Usually the most severally ill with likely symptoms are tested. If COVID rate is low, that'll be mostly regular flu patients. If you can estimate the baseline SA flu-like symptoms rate you can use that to estimate total infection.
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