See also my thread on this subject from yesterday: https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1254309725438529537 … There's an official comment (to the NYT) listed in the second reply.
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See this thread from yesterday:https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1254309725438529537 …
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Is week 14 the week of April 6?
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Why do you think it’s above the threshold in late 2019?
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And I'd add to your question - "why do you think there's no clear upwards hockey stick?". It's as though R0 in Japan is very low or even 1.0, but that doesn't make sense...?
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Wow…it looks like this year’s flu season has been a bad one all around. Given these numbers, I wonder whether
#COVID19 was actually circulating in Japan before the start of the new year? -
I've wondered about this personally, but with zero external evidence to support a self-centered suspicion. Had a bout of flu, first time in years, in early October (so 'way early to be CV19, but) with a dry cough so bad I could not sleep for days. Whatever it was, it was nasty.
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Is that 120 deaths per day?
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Suppose so. In Molan (1.5m inhabitants) we had from 600 ton1.000 deaths per day for a month. Now we lowered to 100 per day (300 per day national). Including thebold and the sick tested as infected. So we see 1/200 per day as reassuring numbers after having touched 1000 / day.
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