Coronavirus hospital capacity math is brutal. Consider Osaka, which had 674 beds as of as of 4/17. They are urgently adding capacity, expanding to 888 by 4/27 and 1,008 by 5/1, per the prefecture. http://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/37375/00361424/siryou4-1.pdf … 22% WoW growth, through extraordinary measures.
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Osaka has stopped sending low- and medium- severity patients to hospitals. Approximately 450 of them are waiting it out in dedicated semi-medical facilities or at home. Some of those will need to go to the hospital soon. But higher-severity patients can't wait.
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Osaka had 472 patients hospitalized as of 4/24, and another 107 which were in the process of negotiating placement with a hospital. (e.g. "Sure, we will have a bed for you in 48 hours, please come in then.")
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That count (hospitalized plus waiting on a bed) is experiencing 6% growth. Day over day.
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Replying to @patio11
What insights/analogues/extrapolations should we take away from the situation in Japan as many other nations get ready to ease restrictions? Please be as Straussian as needed.
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See generally my recent essay. In terms of actions within one's personal locus of control: don't assume the signals which matter are on Someone Important's dashboard. Assume they get their news from TV. If you see anomalies, chase down *quickly* and bias towards effective action
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