Coronavirus hospital capacity math is brutal. Consider Osaka, which had 674 beds as of as of 4/17. They are urgently adding capacity, expanding to 888 by 4/27 and 1,008 by 5/1, per the prefecture. http://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/attach/37375/00361424/siryou4-1.pdf … 22% WoW growth, through extraordinary measures.
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It's worse than the aggregate stats would imply, too, because hospital beds aren't simply a fungible burst capable resource. Having an open bed on the other side of the prefecture doesn't help you. Stats on patients: http://www.pref.osaka.lg.jp/hodo/attach/hodo-38103_4.pdf …
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If you want a single-page look at hospital capacity relative to utilization, see http://stopcovid19.jp The view of current state reported there broadly tracks the one reported by NHK:https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1252836409406152709?s=20 …
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What insights/analogues/extrapolations should we take away from the situation in Japan as many other nations get ready to ease restrictions? Please be as Straussian as needed.
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See generally my recent essay. In terms of actions within one's personal locus of control: don't assume the signals which matter are on Someone Important's dashboard. Assume they get their news from TV. If you see anomalies, chase down *quickly* and bias towards effective action
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