A very interesting conversation about forecasting the future (with the Superforecaster guy), where it tends to pick up predictive alpha, the sociological makeup of people who repeatedly make good predictions, etc.https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/philip-e-tetlock/ …
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An ambient belief I have had for many, many years: Life (for a person, a group, humanity) is an iterated test, with lots of confounding factors. Some problems on the test announce "I am a high school math problem. Seriously." We can observe that not all strategies test equally.
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We are currently faced with an iterated test, with a very tight feedback loop, where *a lot* of the problems announce "I am a high school math problem" or "Choose your own adventure: med school, epidemiology undergrad, or paid attention in 5th grade science or European History."
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This test is distinguished from most tests by the iteration rate being higher, the answers being marked in a far more obvious fashion, the confounding factors being lesser because most of them operate on a longer timescale than the iteration speed, and the stakes being higher.
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So if there was ever a method for doing well on tests or a stat on a character sheet which gives a bonus to your roll, that is going to be both important as a matter of societal concern and also quite a bit more obvious than it normally is from the constant test that is life.
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Epistemic status: This is a model I use to interpret things I have seen in the world over the course of my life, which I have found to repeatedly generate predictions which work well for me, but I acknowledge my reasoning may be corrupted.
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If you had asked me to write a character sheet for myself in high school, I would have put *all* the points into whatever skill governed the roll for doing well on tests, and I have spent much of my adult life sometimes regretting that effort allocation, which through mid-20s.
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Replying to @patio11
Visakan Veerasamy Retweeted Visakan Veerasamy
we are similar in many, many ways but this is an amusing way in which we might be fundamentally different I put all my points into foiling tests
https://twitter.com/visakanv/status/1030908029695287296 …Visakan Veerasamy added,
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Replying to @visakanv
Please note that my definition of doing well on a test was "Anything which resulted in the highest possible score or a score higher than the highest possible score which I would not have to bring up in confession." Strongest claim about me and teachers: most happy, most of time.
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This included e.g. a simulated cooperative trading game in high school history where the rulebook included the scoring rubric on the last page. "Mr. B, the scoring rubric is on the last page. Am I allowed to use it?" "Go for it Patrick." "GUYS ONLY BUY RAILROADS."
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Some people's proud moment from high school was a first love or winning the big game. Mine was Mr. B saying, after I was utterly ineffective at convincing people that intuitions about diversification were not rewarded by the scoring rubric, "Class: listen to Patrick next time."
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That rubric: You got one buy a turn in a game with a pre-announced number of turns. The scoring rubric was cash available plus holdings value, based on a chart. Holdings within an industry were cost + 5% at one investment, + 10% at 2, etc. Railroad was most expensive thing.
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