A very interesting conversation about forecasting the future (with the Superforecaster guy), where it tends to pick up predictive alpha, the sociological makeup of people who repeatedly make good predictions, etc.https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/philip-e-tetlock/ …
-
-
Epistemic status: This is a model I use to interpret things I have seen in the world over the course of my life, which I have found to repeatedly generate predictions which work well for me, but I acknowledge my reasoning may be corrupted.
Show this thread -
If you had asked me to write a character sheet for myself in high school, I would have put *all* the points into whatever skill governed the roll for doing well on tests, and I have spent much of my adult life sometimes regretting that effort allocation, which through mid-20s.
Show this thread -
New conversation -
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.