A very interesting conversation about forecasting the future (with the Superforecaster guy), where it tends to pick up predictive alpha, the sociological makeup of people who repeatedly make good predictions, etc.https://conversationswithtyler.com/episodes/philip-e-tetlock/ …
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We are currently faced with an iterated test, with a very tight feedback loop, where *a lot* of the problems announce "I am a high school math problem" or "Choose your own adventure: med school, epidemiology undergrad, or paid attention in 5th grade science or European History."
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This test is distinguished from most tests by the iteration rate being higher, the answers being marked in a far more obvious fashion, the confounding factors being lesser because most of them operate on a longer timescale than the iteration speed, and the stakes being higher.
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So if there was ever a method for doing well on tests or a stat on a character sheet which gives a bonus to your roll, that is going to be both important as a matter of societal concern and also quite a bit more obvious than it normally is from the constant test that is life.
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Epistemic status: This is a model I use to interpret things I have seen in the world over the course of my life, which I have found to repeatedly generate predictions which work well for me, but I acknowledge my reasoning may be corrupted.
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If you had asked me to write a character sheet for myself in high school, I would have put *all* the points into whatever skill governed the roll for doing well on tests, and I have spent much of my adult life sometimes regretting that effort allocation, which through mid-20s.
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test *what* equally? or test who?
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or is it that they don't all yield similar outcomes on the test?
End of conversation
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