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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      Coronavirus is going to be a close to pathologically misaligned with some of our information distribution and decisionmaking rituals. It's an effective exploit on them almost to the degree it is an effective exploit on infrastructure.

      2 replies 20 retweets 146 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      The situation is going to present a very similar set of challenges which are extremely sensitive to extremely volatile, recent, local data about facts. Those facts cross a variety of problem domains and are not conveniently under any one party's administration.

      1 reply 1 retweet 32 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      The facts ladder up to decisions on courses of action. Many of those courses of actions implicate coordination problems. The effectiveness of those courses of action is *highly non-linear* with success of the coordination effort.

      1 reply 1 retweet 21 likes
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      We are going to struggle with this, and struggle with this mightily, because many of the upcoming challenges are going to be both locally critical *and simultaneously* Old News. There's a coinage in Japan, "corona fatigue," and people and institutions are already feeling it.

      2 replies 7 retweets 29 likes
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    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      Can you imagine being a newspaper reporter in St. Louis in March of 2021 telling your editor "OK, so here me out because this is the truth of it. Absolutely no question is more important right now than understanding if the city needs to reimpose extraordinary measures."

      1 reply 4 retweets 24 likes
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    6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      That reporter might continue "The best currently available guidance is that the city government believes this problem is 90% in hand. If we believe them, there should be *no call made by any reporter at this newspaper* which does not concern the coronavirus."

      1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
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    7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      Can you imagine conducting planning for an urban school district? A company with offices in multiple time zones? A company with a supply chain? A person responsible for industrial safety of a facility whose physical footprint includes one or more enclosed pockets of air?

      3 replies 1 retweet 22 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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      There's been a lot of grumbling that there isn't one single effective Corona Czar to cover a national response effort. I feel reasonably certain that there are going to need to be something on the order of several million effective Corona Czars worldwide.

      6:44 PM - 22 Apr 2020
      • 2 Retweets
      • 42 Likes
      • David's Den Myles Steinhauser Andrew L. Johnson Tom Woodfin The Infinite Cavern CIA Analyst with 8 kids ian hines Matt "MSG superfan" Olson Christine Price brrr Seitz
      5 replies 2 retweets 42 likes
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        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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          If you compare this to the number of currently credentialed experts or people working in public health... one very quickly comes to the conclusion that a lot of us civilians are going to have to step the heck up, very very quickly, for a very long time.

          1 reply 1 retweet 40 likes
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        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 22
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          Optimistically: "Sad you missed the boat on being able to contribute to this effort early, when no one understood what was happening and work was infinite leverage? Good news: you're going to get a do over." Pessimistically: "The virus is going to get a lot of do overs, too."

          1 reply 4 retweets 48 likes
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        4. End of conversation
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        2. Roman Ramírez‏ @roman_s_ramirez Apr 22
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          Replying to @patio11

          Would it be accurate to say tht we shld be focsing on makng sure locl leadrs in chrge of coordintng rspnse undrstnd how to filter signal/noise and implementing low-latency scalable channels of information?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Roman Ramírez‏ @roman_s_ramirez Apr 22
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          Replying to @roman_s_ramirez @patio11

          In othr wrds, prioritize emerging information that meets an acceptable credibility threshold in order to reduce latency in dcsion makng from local leaders - scaling so we don't wait for info/action cycles to trickle down.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Marcos Polanco‏ @MarcosPolanco Apr 22
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          Replying to @patio11

          Chaos is a ladder.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. Ted Han ★‏ @knowtheory Apr 22
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          Replying to @patio11

          What do you think coordination means? That there’s one person doing everything? My point was that the networks of all of those millions of czars is currently in disarray because of a leadership vacuum. There are people everywhere trying to respond as best as they can.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Ted Han ★‏ @knowtheory Apr 22
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          Replying to @knowtheory @patio11

          The fact that states are forming compacts to coordinate among themselves is demonstrative of this particular failure mode

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. Patrick Bourke‏ @patrickbourke Apr 22
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          Replying to @patio11

          Each household will need to be its own Corona Czar. In the coming months we’ll all need to judge whether the advice from institutions that we are stakeholders in or subject to is aligned with our own risk profiles and perception of the situation. Incentives are very misaligned.

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