A month ago, the pseudonymous Working Group did an independent research project on the coronavirus outbreak in Japan. Our result was novel and concerning. We quietly circulated it to accelerate the response effort. Here's the research and the backstory: https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/ …
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For insight into how and when a non-expert can reasonably be expected to beat the experts see Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book, “Inadequate equilibria."
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You've put pen to paper and run the data and due diligence that I've been speculating about since mid-February. WELL DONE and BRAVO and THANK YOU SO MUCH. I cannot say how grateful I am that y'all did this. I am still in shock that our politicians and experts did not.
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Your essay does not describe (at least for readers not intimately familiar with Japan) what social pressures you are concerned about. Please elaborate if you are able.
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Patrick is an immigrant non-expert in Japan. His immigration status is vulnerable to bureaucratic backlash. It is not his place to tell the Japanese government how to run their country, which is why he has not done so
End of conversation
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I'm having trouble following. And this seems like an odd way to try and get the word out. And the
#s from Japan don't seem to suggest a disaster at the moment.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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