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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      A month ago, the pseudonymous Working Group did an independent research project on the coronavirus outbreak in Japan. Our result was novel and concerning. We quietly circulated it to accelerate the response effort. Here's the research and the backstory: https://www.kalzumeus.com/2020/04/21/japan-coronavirus/ …

      47 replies 362 retweets 1,152 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Patrick McKenzie

      We published a hash of our white paper on Twitter on March 25th, 2020.https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1242670345737256962 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Patrick McKenzie @patio11
      cb04b3ec5377cd7ac02c27b1e539a563dcdc984df0a37c543abb08b2bdc667fa84a32094a89be032a685c473bb381d6eebbc8482683331cbd8859209263da98a
      Show this thread
      1 reply 4 retweets 63 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      Patrick McKenzie Retweeted Patrick McKenzie

      Three days prior to that, on March 22nd, I was sufficiently convinced that there was an unacknowledged geographically distributed coronavirus outbreak to pre-register that conclusion. The Working Group came together and began work on March 23rd.https://twitter.com/patio11/status/1241551327743770624 …

      Patrick McKenzie added,

      Patrick McKenzie @patio11
      b285b048c5f1d12785b50c79e3ba30943f9a26f5968434ac65bd1a3e6fba77de255b5483b903253398f6f2775b34e1066bce13e17cba751b44e5f6ad02f30a04
      Show this thread
      2 replies 1 retweet 44 likes
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      I've explained the idiom of dropping a hash on Twitter here for the benefit of folks for whom this is new: https://www.kalzumeus.com/essays/dropping-hashes/ …

      6 replies 5 retweets 90 likes
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    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      We opted to work pseudonymously a month ago to avoid negative impact on the containment efforts or on our team. I am coming forward because the work was early and correct enough to inform responses, and we think our methods may accelerate future efforts here and elsewhere.

      1 reply 10 retweets 97 likes
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    6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      I would like to thank my co-authors, those who helped us arrive at this result, and the researchers, journalists, engineers, and others without whom it would have been impossible. We hope to have been of some small service.

      1 reply 0 retweets 53 likes
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    7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      The situation remains extremely fluid and concerning. There are still potential social consequences to those close to this effort and people they are responsible for. I am coming forward, in a cautious manner, for reasons described in the above essay.

      1 reply 2 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 21
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      I may not be in a position to elaborate further on this topic. Please see the essay.

      6:10 AM - 21 Apr 2020
      • 1 Retweet
      • 53 Likes
      • S. Kuzki Fiona Ostby Illustration Ayush Fork From Home John David Petras Engelmanas James Burns
      5 replies 1 retweet 53 likes
        1. The Real Jeanimal‏ @TheRealJeanimal Apr 21
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          Replying to @patio11

          For insight into how and when a non-expert can reasonably be expected to beat the experts see Eliezer Yudkowsky’s book, “Inadequate equilibria."

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. Samantha @ writing quietly #stayathome  👻 🕎 ✨ 🧟‍♀️‏ @broomsticknpen Apr 24
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          Replying to @patio11

          You've put pen to paper and run the data and due diligence that I've been speculating about since mid-February. WELL DONE and BRAVO and THANK YOU SO MUCH. I cannot say how grateful I am that y'all did this. I am still in shock that our politicians and experts did not.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        1. New conversation
        2. John Mark Schofield‏ @schof Apr 21
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          Replying to @patio11

          Your essay does not describe (at least for readers not intimately familiar with Japan) what social pressures you are concerned about. Please elaborate if you are able.

          1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Matthew Wismer‏ @MatthewWismer Apr 21
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          Replying to @schof @patio11

          Patrick is an immigrant non-expert in Japan. His immigration status is vulnerable to bureaucratic backlash. It is not his place to tell the Japanese government how to run their country, which is why he has not done so

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation
        1. Patrick Breitenbach‏ @pbreit Apr 27
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          Replying to @patio11

          I'm having trouble following. And this seems like an odd way to try and get the word out. And the #s from Japan don't seem to suggest a disaster at the moment.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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