I rather enjoyed this article by Scott Alexander, and I think the world probably needs to do some thinking about expertise. It is a capability set; it is not a priesthood.https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …
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Replying to @patio11
Catherine Olsson Retweeted Catherine Olsson
I like
@sonyasupposedly's concept of "Mastery through experience"https://twitter.com/catherineols/status/1247701096245506049 …Catherine Olsson added,
Catherine Olsson @catherineolsReplying to @qualmistDepends what exactly is meant by "experts" Borrowing from@sonyasupposedly, there TOTALLY is such a thing as "mastery through experience", and it's very important. But it's not true that folks with MtE are all inside, and those without it are outside. https://twitter.com/sonyasupposedly/status/1246673199229616128 …1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes -
Replying to @catherineols @patio11
fwiw, my $0.02 on that SSC post: being right is worthless in a vacuum, being right and DOING SOMETHING about it is what matters. if you're just sitting there predicting things correctly, who cares? thinking probabilistically is a prerequisite, not sufficient for a victory lap
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Replying to @sonyasupposedly @catherineols
Yep, you do need to hit all three of being right (some percentage of time), achieve conviction on likelihood of being right (some percentage of time), and taking action based on being right (some percentage of time). But people *very much did this.*
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I keep using a hypothetical example to avoid saying something people will treat as less hypothetical: Could a WoW guild have distributed masks in February? It is extremely possible for a WoW guild to have distributed masks in February, to protect lives and also raid times.
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I would bet money that at least one WoW guild factually did distribute masks.
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Replying to @patio11 @catherineols
the reason I'm feisty about this is background subcultural nerd drama, just ignore me
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There needs to be some way to covertly say "Yeah this thread is not relevant to you unless you are a Russian spy." (I am not a Russian spy, nor am I a "Russian spy", but I have a high percentage guess that subcultural nerds understand the reference. ;) )
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