I rather enjoyed this article by Scott Alexander, and I think the world probably needs to do some thinking about expertise. It is a capability set; it is not a priesthood.https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …
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There’s sort of a narrative recently around “Oh sure, you think a phenomenon can be modeled with high school math. Such simplisme.” Yep, that thought is wrong, for most things which are not amenable to high school math. But *there is a reason to learn and use high school math.*
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Probability is another field of math which is very within the reach of a high schooler. It does not perfectly describe the game of poker but is quite useful. There are poker players who don’t buy probability, as a field. Other poker players love discovering them at their table.
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Replying to @patio11
Scott’s post made me think of poker too. Why can I fold a pair of 10s when the table is bad, but I can’t sell my stocks in the face of a pandemic
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I have had call to ask that same question in almost the same words.
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