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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 15
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      I rather enjoyed this article by Scott Alexander, and I think the world probably needs to do some thinking about expertise. It is a capability set; it is not a priesthood.https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …

      10 replies 49 retweets 307 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc Apr 16
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      Replying to @patio11

      There’s also something about the basic epistemic posture... do you believe that you can (and must) form your own judgement or do you think that coupling to credentialed others is the best you can do?

      9 replies 1 retweet 76 likes
    3. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 16
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      Replying to @patrickc @patio11

      The missing perspective: we need to trust others to some degree (can't figure out everything on your own), but we need to have *reasons for trusting them*. Credentials are one factor in the overall case for “why should I believe X's argument?” Not a license to blind trust

      2 replies 0 retweets 22 likes
    4. Abhi Sharma‏ @abhisharma_b Apr 16
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      Replying to @jasoncrawford @patrickc @patio11

      Although how do you come up with a sound framework on “reasons for trusting” especially in domains you no clue about?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 16
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      Replying to @abhisharma_b @patrickc @patio11

      Combo of things: the evidence the expert points to, their logic/reasoning, their track record, the counterarguments from other equally-credentialed experts, etc.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 16
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      Replying to @jasoncrawford @abhisharma_b @patrickc

      I might add "Degree to which the environment subjects this field to substantial objective pressure w/r/t claimed results" (higher = defer to expert consensus more) and, relatedly, "Method by which field bounces wrongness" (goes bankrupt = defer more; social pressure = defer less)

      7:55 AM - 16 Apr 2020
      • 8 Likes
      • Peter Hartree Thuongvu ben blazak Ryan Brewster Ari Nielsen Abhi Sharma Sriram Krishnan Jason Crawford
      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Jason Crawford‏ @jasoncrawford Apr 16
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          Replying to @patio11 @abhisharma_b @patrickc

          Yes, as I recall there was something like this in Thinking, Fast & Slow. Expert predictions are more trustworthy in fields where experts actually have a feedback loop that forces, or at least allows, them to improve their predictions

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        3. Arnaud Schenk‏ @_ArnaudS_ Apr 16
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          Replying to @jasoncrawford @patio11 and

          Arnaud Schenk Retweeted Feifan Zhou

          I thought @FeifanZ 's summary of Inadequate Equilibria was good on this subject.https://twitter.com/FeifanZ/status/1249725918840377344 …

          Arnaud Schenk added,

          Feifan Zhou @FeifanZ
          Inadequate Equilibria has become one of the most valuable books I've read, but it was very hard to understand at first. Let's unpack some of its ideas (with apologies to @ESYudkowsky for anything I've gotten wrong): (🧵 1/12) https://feifan.blog/2020/04/07/inadequate-equilibria-a-summarized-remix/ …
          Show this thread
          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        4. End of conversation

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