I rather enjoyed this article by Scott Alexander, and I think the world probably needs to do some thinking about expertise. It is a capability set; it is not a priesthood.https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …
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Ok but I think the bets metaphor is misleading? Bets have a capped loss. Compare with buying insurance, where you want to hedge unknown real-world losses using a bet. How do we judge who is the best buyer of insurance? Who hedged enough for rare events, but not too much?
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