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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 15
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    I rather enjoyed this article by Scott Alexander, and I think the world probably needs to do some thinking about expertise. It is a capability set; it is not a priesthood.https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/14/a-failure-but-not-of-prediction/ …

    11:41 PM - 15 Apr 2020
    • 49 Retweets
    • 307 Likes
    • Guilherme Flameyyy Figo Lambo Jack Yeh Tweet News 679gayley Winning Emergence Albert Szabo Junior
    10 replies 49 retweets 307 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 15
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        There’s sort of a narrative recently around “Oh sure, you think a phenomenon can be modeled with high school math. Such simplisme.” Yep, that thought is wrong, for most things which are not amenable to high school math. But *there is a reason to learn and use high school math.*

        1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 15
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        Probability is another field of math which is very within the reach of a high schooler. It does not perfectly describe the game of poker but is quite useful. There are poker players who don’t buy probability, as a field. Other poker players love discovering them at their table.

        3 replies 1 retweet 48 likes
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      4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 15
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        You would think “I seem to be losing to these people deploying probability; perhaps my model ‘the gods are fickle’ needs an update” would convince poker players, but surprisingly even with extremely visible, salient evidence of losing some people, otherwise normal, say “I won.”

        1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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      5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 16
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        Given a much more positive sum domain than poker for correctly predicting future behavior of the universe and adapting to it, I would hope we would not say “Hmm, chip counts are one thing, but let’s compare CVs to determine who actually won here. Listen to them this/next time.”

        2 replies 4 retweets 26 likes
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      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Catherine Olsson‏ @catherineols Apr 16
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        Replying to @patio11

        Catherine Olsson Retweeted Catherine Olsson

        I like @sonyasupposedly's concept of "Mastery through experience"https://twitter.com/catherineols/status/1247701096245506049 …

        Catherine Olsson added,

        Catherine Olsson @catherineols
        Replying to @qualmist
        Depends what exactly is meant by "experts" Borrowing from @sonyasupposedly, there TOTALLY is such a thing as "mastery through experience", and it's very important. But it's not true that folks with MtE are all inside, and those without it are outside. https://twitter.com/sonyasupposedly/status/1246673199229616128 …
        1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
      3. sonya! supposedly?‏ @sonyasupposedly Apr 16
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        Replying to @catherineols @patio11

        fwiw, my $0.02 on that SSC post: being right is worthless in a vacuum, being right and DOING SOMETHING about it is what matters. if you're just sitting there predicting things correctly, who cares? thinking probabilistically is a prerequisite, not sufficient for a victory lap

        5 replies 1 retweet 25 likes
      4. 5 more replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick Collison‏Verified account @patrickc Apr 16
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        Replying to @patio11

        There’s also something about the basic epistemic posture... do you believe that you can (and must) form your own judgement or do you think that coupling to credentialed others is the best you can do?

        9 replies 1 retweet 76 likes
      3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 16
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        Replying to @patrickc

        I kind of look at it as the epistemic posture control panel, where you have a lot of different levers to dial in for individual tasks/fields/etc and sufficient metacognition to reset levers based on new evidence. I have many less levers pegged at "Defer" than I did on January 1.

        2 replies 1 retweet 27 likes
      4. 1 more reply
      1. New conversation
      2. David Snitkof‏ @davesnitty Apr 16
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        Replying to @patio11

        Very thoughtful analysis. People tend to struggle with how to reason about asymmetric risk, where the probability of an event and its magnitude are wildly different.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. David Snitkof‏ @davesnitty Apr 16
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        Replying to @davesnitty @patio11

        Fascinating time for people who study asymmetric risk professionally. For most ppl, social pressure/nudges/defaults likely more persuasive than analysis. Wearing a seatbelt to stop the dinging sound vs. understanding that while prob of accident is low, magnitude is very high.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation

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