I think the information environment has people thinking we’re maybe 50% “through” coronavirus and I think my estimate is on the order of 3 to 5%.
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The prediction is, depending on how one assesses such things, either "so right that most of HN will disbelieve any smart person thought otherwise despite voluminous evidence to contrary" or "OK, directionally right for 80%, but we lack data on the numeric bit, skeptical on 20%."
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Whether/when I'll be able to publish it depends on factors other than the timeline of the prediction itself.
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Thanks, Patrick. And we in Australia who think we have flattened the curve are in this for the long haul?
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Everyone is.
End of conversation
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