I think the information environment has people thinking we’re maybe 50% “through” coronavirus and I think my estimate is on the order of 3 to 5%.
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And there are many, many shoes that have not yet dropped.
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Replying to @orthonormalist
Define “we” and define “wide lockdown.” I have missed Christmas with my family twice in 37 years. My estimate on seeing them for Christmas this year is 20% and decreasing.
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Replying to @orthonormalist
Not obvious to me at all those are the same threat model. Mind if I zoom in on a wedding for a moment? I have a pretty good intuitive understanding for what a normal wedding looks like in my family: 200 guests, from all over, from all generations, with no extraordinary caution.
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Replying to @patio11 @orthonormalist
I think there is less than 10% chance that one could sensibly hold this normal wedding anywhere in US or Japan on any Saturday in 2020.
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Oh that’s right it is 2020 already. Sorry: meant *2021.*
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