I think the information environment has people thinking we’re maybe 50% “through” coronavirus and I think my estimate is on the order of 3 to 5%.
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Maybe the difference is semantics of what counts as "extreme social distancing". I think we have fairly repeated evidence that strong national/regional lockdowns (a la Italy, shelter-in-place orders in various states) have significantly affected the growth of the virus.
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What I think we have *no evidence* for—and I'm quite pessimistic about—is that we will maintain the requisite levels of extreme distancing to keep the virus under control.
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