And there are many, many shoes that have not yet dropped.
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You can predict a lot of the shoes, too. Read headlines from elsewhere; apply locally. “$POLITICIAN hospitalized” a pretty salient one. You can imagine many, many more.
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When is your prediction - that document you wrote - due to be made public?
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The prediction was dated for 30 days from when I made it, which was 3/22 JST (and then substantial elaboration on 3/25 JST).
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Really? You think it'll take 5-10 years? (Assuming we've moved "through" 3-4 months of the timeline) That's simultaneously quite high (We'll be able to prevent sooner) and low (systemic impacts will play out over decades)
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My rough estimate for “How long for a clueful English speaker to be in crisis mode for coronavirus without being notably early to this topic?” is as of today approximately 2 months, FWIW.
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By what measure: elapsed time of "pandemic" status, net cases, net deaths, or some other measure?
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For what definition of "through"? It's clear that a lot of country have the outbreak under control & will have kids back to school before the summer. Can't see travel or event restrictions changing until we have the vaccine.
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"It's clear that a lot of country have the outbreak under control" My understanding of the implication from the tweet is that isn't clear at all. It's clear that extreme social distancing can bring the outbreak under control.
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