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patio11's profile
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
Patrick McKenzie
@patio11

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Patrick McKenzie

@patio11

I work for the Internet, at @stripe, mostly on accelerating startups. Opinions here are my own.

東京都 Tokyo
kalzumeus.com
Joined February 2009

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    1. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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      If you have heard the words "75 years" and "Post Office" recently you may enjoy a brief digression about how to account for pension liabilities:

      8 replies 60 retweets 261 likes
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    2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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      Defined benefits pensions are an extremely expensive benefit which was once extremely popular to offer for employees, because they allow you to offer something which is valued highly by employees but costs you little in terms of cash in the present day.

      2 replies 3 retweets 50 likes
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    3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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      As an actuarial matter, for each day an employee labors under a defined benefits pension, you incur some liability in the future. Tech people will recognize this as very similar to stock vesting: irrespective of accounting treatment or payment timing, one day is one day long.

      1 reply 1 retweet 37 likes
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    4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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      The dominant way of funding pensions is called "pay-as-you-go": you're required to have cash reserves on hand to meet expected obligations over some relatively short window. But these reserves are not not not not not not not not not not not not not not not the liability.

      4 replies 1 retweet 39 likes
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    5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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      The liability grows every day for every current and past employee with a pension, and periodically goes down a little when one passes out of pension coverage, either by quitting before vesting or by passing away.

      3 replies 1 retweet 30 likes
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      Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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      This mismatch in reserves and liabilities has caused the "Pension Tsunami", because almost everyone got a rosy report from their actuaries as to what the pension would cost, took the suggested reserve levels those actuaries thought might possibly cover, and *did not* save it.

      10:17 PM - 12 Apr 2020
      • 5 Retweets
      • 44 Likes
      • Aristocrat of Greed 🇺🇸 🔞 Kirk Byers Kevin Lynch Mitch Ben Stein Jackie thinks Black Lives Matter 🏳️‍⚧️ Gustavo Fischer Quixotic Synonym Allegedly👀😿😡
      4 replies 5 retweets 44 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          The Post Office has relatively unique pension treatment, because it is quasi-governmental and part of the spinoff was Congress deciding that the Post Office should not be able to transfer unfunded pension liability to taxpayers.

          1 reply 1 retweet 35 likes
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        3. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          So Congress passed a law saying "You don't get to pay-as-you-go. Instead, you need to model out costs for current and previous employees over a 50 year window from retirement date, and reserve adequately against those projected costs."

          1 reply 3 retweets 43 likes
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        4. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          Defenders of the Post Office, 10+ years ago, said that this was unfair, because it is relatively unique treatment. The policy was instituted specifically to avoid transferring $100B+ in pension liability to the taxpayer.

          1 reply 6 retweets 41 likes
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        5. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          Here's something I wrote eight years ago:pic.twitter.com/PJcbVqUmAM

          4 replies 6 retweets 46 likes
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        6. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          "The Post Office would be profitable if only..." is, to be blunt, a lie. It is an accounting fiction. The Post Office was never profitable. It can never be profitable. The interesting argument to have is "OK, then who covers the shortfall here? We lied. We can lie no more."

          3 replies 10 retweets 98 likes
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        7. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          This is not a situation unique to the Post Office. It will apply to almost every public pension. It is hitting the Post Office first because the Post Office is constrained by statute to lie a little less blatantly than most public pensions.

          5 replies 26 retweets 152 likes
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        8. Patrick McKenzie‏ @patio11 Apr 12
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          For more reading on pensions, which are going to be the largest financial crisis the world has ever seen, see http://pensiontsunami.com  The site is 15 years old, and this was generally well understood the day they opened and for decades before that.

          7 replies 26 retweets 149 likes
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        9. End of conversation
        1. Alex Godofsky‏ @AlexGodofsky Apr 12
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          Replying to @patio11

          What??? This is completely false.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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        1. New conversation
        2. Zenzo L‏ @ZenzoLusengo Apr 13
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          Replying to @patio11

          Unroll @threadreaderapp

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Thread Reader App‏ @threadreaderapp Apr 13
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          Replying to @ZenzoLusengo

          Bonjour, here is your unroll: @patio11: If you have heard the words "75 years" and "Post Office" recently you may enjoy a brief digression about how… https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1249565971347464193.html … Have a good day. 🤖

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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