The marginal cost of making a dish remains more or less the same regardless of whether it’s made in a regular kitchen or a delivery-only kitchen, no? If true, how do unit economics of delivery change? Am I being super dumb here? I get that opex is lower in one scenario
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Replying to @sarthakgh
I would take the other side of this bet, based on my ambient impressions of how commissaries work. Commercial kitchens can approach factory levels of output per employee; restaurants have more difficulty (unless they’re built around “run it like a commissary”). 60% confidence?
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Not very familiar with that company specifically, but I think that cloud kitchens are going to supply many more calories in 2040 than amateurs working at home will in footprint covering 30%+ of populations of US, Japan, etc. 95% confidence. Aware many smart people disagree.
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This is a tectonic shift in food culture much like moving food to the market economy away from the household economy has been and continues to be a tectonic shift in food culture. That shift, which has happened but not completely, also rounded to unthinkable, in living memory.
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So it's *directionally* like that, and one of my favorite ways of predicting the future is to predict that the present gets more widely distributed than it is at present, but commissaries specifically not obviously winning the calorie share war anywhere yet as far as I'm aware.
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The bet is, effectively, "We have ample evidence that people given the choice would prefer a restaurant kitchen to their kitchen; I bet they'd happily go one step further and prefer a commercial kitchen to the restaurant kitchen (to a degree larger than today by a multiple)."
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Really good points, ty!
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